Let me start this one off by saying I love ball pythons, and they have been a major part of my collection basically since the beginning. I also believe the ball pythons are, and will continue to be the "king" of the reptile industry as far as snakes go.
A bit more context on my side of things - I was very lucky to get connected to Kevin McCurley of NERD very early in my keeping journey. I was in my early/mid teens if I remember correctly. So while many iconic morphs had already been around for a bit (Pastel, Pied, YB, Clown, etc) it was still very early on in the combo making game. Inferno (Pastel HGW Granite YB Fader) ball pythons were still this "WOW" combo very few people had seen unless they had been to NERD or seen Kevin at a show.
With that connection to Kevin, and just a few years later to Brian Barczyk, I was lucky to see a lot of new combos and ideas coming to fruition in the world of ball pythons. Yes, there were other big players in the BP game, of course! I recall one time visiting Kevin, and he had some folks in from South Africa, and he had to take a phone call and asked me to show them around a bit since I was very familiar with the building and the animals. During that time I asked them what the market was like in SA, and at the time, they told me the first Pewters (Cinnamon + Pastel) had just been made in the country and that was the biggest thing. The states were very much further along, that's for sure. LOL
Fastforward all of this to recent years. Certainly we all benefited from the COVID "boom" with stimulus checks and all that, and inevitable crash right afterwards. I recall doing a podcast with Brian B. talking about previous economic cycles and how to navigate it. We both agreed at the time that we didn't think the "down time" would last super long - looking back I think we missed a few variables. So let's dive into that a bit.
Social Media: Social media has done wonders for bringing the hobby into the limelight and showcasing that reptiles can be great pets. It has also highlighted some of the not so great keepers, and folks that unfortanately exist in the world. Also, with the increase in keepers, there was an inevitable increase in people breeding ball pythons. I think this has played a HUGE role in the state of the market now. We, as a hobby, have done very well at showcasing the "glits and glam" of breeding ball pythons. High dollar values, impressive life styles, etc. On the flip side, we do not often show the harsh relatities of the hobby either... how things don't scale, value crashes, many "big breeders" have other forms of income that grant them the freedom to breed snakes as a side hustle even though they showcase it as a primary income stream, etc. This false narrative brings people in, and forces them out rather quickly because of the focus on the wrong things.
Project Based Markets: While BPs do make great pets for every level of keeper, most breeders are not focusing on the pet market, they are focusing on the investment level market - so there is a lot of competition for a smaller group of people. Let's say 1,000 people buy ball pythons in a month - I would argue that less than 10% of those people are spending over $2500 on an animals. I put that number at that point because I have sold some $1000-1500 animals to keepers who just wanted a cool pet ball python. So - 100 people spending $2500+ on animals, and well over 100 animals produced at that price point. People can be picky about what they want because of options. The other issue with this is what ever is the HOT project, is going to run high in price, the more common it becomes, the price will drop of course, but it will also inevitable force other project price points to drop especially in "less favorable" or "more common" markets. Of course this is the way of the world in business - something new costs more than something that's been around a while. That's not always a bad thing, but when breeders are attemtping to target the high end market with animals that are quickly falling from the low supply, high demand level, it creates a large amount of genetic "by product" that breeders struggle to sell thus dropping prices even more.
Quantity Production: Some breeders produce large numbers of animals and because of that volume they will charge a much lower price to move animals with the least amount of overhead possible per animal. While I understand keeping costs low, it is certainly frustrating to see someone produce similar (if not exactly the same) animals, and charge 20% less just because they made 500 more babies than I did and they need to make the money.
Understanding the new trends: Multi-recessive projects are certainly the way of the market now. While the base combo (say DG Clown) which has significantly dropped in price in just the last 2 years may not be as desireable, but combos introducing multiple incomplete dominant genes, as well as other recessives will help increase value. Why? It's a numbers game. The odds of you hitting a DG Clown with 2,3,4 or more Inc. Dom genes are fewer than just hitting a 1/16 DG clown (from DH to DH pairing). This keeps project prices moving. In short - it makes sense of have a few Inc. Dominant stacked animals (on both sides of thef gender) to be able to plug into projects and create your own DH and TH+ animals and work on taking those projects to the next level.
Innovate with what you like: It's safe to say there are combos that always catch people eye and pushes the trends of the masses. Each breeder certainly has that one gene that they really love and want to explore. Take hold of the trend and put your stamp on it. I think it was only a few years ago, Garrick Demeyer of Royal Constrictor Designs made the Lavender Albino Sugar! Both genes have been around for a long time, but never combined! Think about the possibilities with that!!! Pastel Enchi ODYB Calico (which is a stunning combo), now, put that into lav albino!! The potential is out there, you just have to be willing to believe in a project and see it through. Don't worry about what others like, but also be mindful of how much you produce as to not flood your self and your regional market.
In closing, I could ramble about these things for a long time, but these are my thooughts. Ball pythons are the king, and we probaby wouldn't have the same level of industry we have now if it wasn't for the species - so be thankful! Be thankful for those that pioneered this species when the majority of the market wanted NOTHING to do with them. There is still tons of potential in ball pythons from both an investment standpoint, and a pet stand point. Pay attention to whats around you, be willing to pivot and navigate sometimes tretcherous waters, and keep on the grind! While I am shifting my focus away from ball pythons for desires working with other species, they still hold a place near and dear to my heart. The breeders who innovate and work to create new creations still have my respect. Remember - the genetic "game" has only existed for about 30 or so years - that is not a long time, and we still have plenty more to figure out! Keep pushing!